Tags Posts tagged with "Forecasts"

Forecasts

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A stream of soft economic data from the US over the past weeks has been broadly supportive of cable. This change in fundamentals was enough to reverse the bearish trend.

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The Federal Reserve released its minutes today and confirmed what many had suspected. The delay in tightening monetary policy was close but weakness in the global economy tipped the balance on the side of caution.

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The Bank of England held tight again this month with a vote to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent. Few analysts see tightening getting underway before next spring.

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The Australian dollar was also in upbeat mood. Yesterday’s meeting of the Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold at 2 percent (as widely expected) for the sixth month. The weakness in US fundamentals gave traders an excuse to buy the beaten down Aussie again.

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Tomorrow will also mark the Bank of England’s October monetary policy committee meeting and release of their policy statement. No change in rates or QE is expected but the statement will be closely scrutinized

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The US dollar recovered somewhat after sharp falls at the end of last week. The greenback pushed higher against the British pound and the euro both of which were suffering on weak fundamentals. USD/JPY also rallied upwards as risk appetite improved and the yen saw an outflow of funds.

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A recovery in GBP/USD was set into reverse on Monday on further evidence that the UK economy is cooling. The services sector, the main cornerstone of the economy, weakened significantly in September.

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The greenback fell against the euro, the Japanese yen and the pound pulling back some of yesterday’s strong gains. Activity was subdued though with most traders waiting on tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls before placing trades of any size.

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Cable looks set for another down week again. GBP/USD was testing five month lows today as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the UK pound.

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GBP/USD was testing the lower range at 1.51 with upward breaks of any size being quickly sold down again. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England declined to offer any support to the Pound in his speech yesterday. Instead Mr Carney focused on the global economy and the impact of climate change.