Missed stop losses are a thing of the past with this indicator. Rather than guessing stop losses and take profit levels, it uses a time-based model (read more) to tell you the exact probability of the price reaching a certain level in a certain time.
- Calculates optimal stop loss/take profits
- Shows probability of price move vs. time
- Works on any market and time frame
The indicator is very easy to use and provides visual output directly onto the chart with which you can trade.
Just set the target trade time and required win ratio, and the indicator will calculate the optimal stop loss and take profit levels taking into account the market conditions. The curves extended at the front of the chart show the probabilities of the price reaching a certain level in a certain time.
Find the right stop/profit levels using the tricks of the pros.
From this you can see the exact range the price is likely to reach over time – and use this in planning the trade.
It is suitable for manual trading and can also be used as a custom indicator to provide direct input to an expert advisor.
The indicator is fully configurable allowing you to set:
- Trade time
- Target win ratio
- Curve limits
- All colors
Trade time: The target trade time is defined in days or fractions of days.
Win ratio: Set the target probability for the trade to win. Keep in mind that generally a higher probability will require a wider stop loss and smaller take profit. A smaller win probability will allow a greater profit with a smaller stop loss.
Market: There are three options to choose from. The random model makes no prior assumptions about market direction. The trending model assumes a constant drift based on the current market trend. For example, when buying in an upward trend the drift would cause the stops to be calculated slightly higher than with the “random model”. When buying in a downward trend the stops would be calculated lower.
The reverse-trending model assumes the current trend is about to reverse and as such reverses the drift parameter. It therefore does the opposite of the above. In a rising market, buy stops will be placed lower due to the assumption that a reversal is imminent.
Trade side: Choose which outputs are to be displayed on the chart. Choosing “buy side” will display the buy side outputs. Choosing “sell side” will do the opposite.
Curve probabilities: Choose which curves to display on the chart. Up to four maximal curves can be shown on the chart at once. The curves extend forwards in time. To display the curves, make sure the Metatrader setting “shift end of chart from right border” is on.
The outputs from the indicator are based on statistical calculations of the probability of certain price movements over a given time period.
The maximal curves displayed on the chart will show the probability of the price reaching a certain level, within a certain time. You can set these to any percentage between zero and one. For example, the price has a 1% probability of touching the 1% curve. It has a 50% probability of touching the 50% curve. And so on.
Using these curves you can easily find the probability of the price reaching any level within a certain time.
Taking the example in Figure 1:
Current price USD/JPY = 114.093
There’s a 1% probability of the price moving to 126.737 within 10 days
There’s a 20% probability of the price moving to 118.926 within 5 days
There’s a 50% probability of the price moving to 115.647 within 2 days
This example is for the daily chart, but the same applies to lower or higher time frames.
For a further technical explanation please see the user guide.