Week employment data that came out today for Canada showed an economy still languishing,
the overall unemployment rate going up from previous 6.6% to 6.8%, putting more pressure on BoC to cut interest rates further soon. CAD lost 80 pips to the USD after the data. Looking at the daily chart you can see the consolidation triangle, that formed between February and beginning of March was broken last Friday, and has been maintained. The weekly chart shows a similar picture, with a break out on last Friday’s close, of a consolidation triangle, and this week looks like a confirmation. Price action next week above today’s high will signal more strength in this up trend. Some cause for concern as to how fast this trend will continue pushing comes from the MACD on the weekly chart as it starts reaching overbought territory.
Lots of pressure on Canadian dollar now the oil price is going down again. If we see a rate cut it will be very bearish on CAD. I am not sure though BOC will have to raise rates. For one they have a higher cost of imports now that US Dollar is so strong this is keeping inflation higher but you are right employment is also an issue.
USD/CAD is consolidating on short term, the pair is trying to regain the energy required to push the price above the resistance from 1,2798. If will jump above this resistance then the upward movement will continue.