Participant

hi to all
i’ve been monitoring the eur/usd pair for a while, each time i say it’s a good time to go long, i decide to wait an see, and it seems my waiting saved me a lot of bucks, but now, things look different as the pair reached a very dramatic level, break below the 1.1750 level might lead the pair to 1.0900
the pair broke below 50% fibo level(0.8410-1.5947) with no seen support, also the 1.1950-1.2100 area which is supposed to be a huge support for the pair was also broken easily.
the only thing remaining to keep a chance for a rise in the pair is the trendline facing the pair at 1.1750 area
i think if broken 1.0900 is coming very soon
but if the pair managed to survive the current selling wave it might be able to bounce back to 1.2160 level before continuing to 1.2500 then 1.2900 which might lead us to a new big uptrend
but according to fundamentals upside scenario seems to be very hard to accomplish.

eur/usd

 
Participant

I think it hangs on the ECB meeting at end January and how big the liquidity injection is going to be. The market is positioned for something fairly drastic so if the news surprises on the upside or downside we could see some dramatic moves in the euro as things correct themselves.

Anyways like you said entering any long euro trades right now is high risk but could pay off big if we see a sharp reversal. That could happen if the QE turns out to be less than expected. We will also have to see the benefits of this and once economically things start to look upwards the eur/usd may be on the up again, but that is away off yet.

 
Participant

i totally agree with you
but for me the surprise would be the upside not the downside
it’s very obvious almost all markets participants are pessimistic towards eur/usd , if any surprise it will be upside cause downside won’t be considered surprising.
although i’m still convinced the current rates are attracting for a long call. but i prefer waiting.

 
Participant

We have seen several failed rallies in eur/usd over the last few weeks and i think many day traders were caught off guard in these kinds of quick reversals that did not go anywhere. But i also think there is a demand/supply issue going on here so we have to be careful about predicting the direction on sentiment.

 
Participant

well for me, i will stand aside, i decided not to get involved in this pair for now unless clear view is available
take care and enjoy theweekend

 
Participant

update: the pair still trading within the same range failing to break down 1.1750 also failing to make a move up
it’s obvious that the markets are waiting data to move

 
Participant

well the paid did break 1.1750 and trading around 1.1580
i think 1.1500 area in psychologically important
i assume a retest of 1.1750 may occur before trying to break lower again

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