Tomorrow’s ECB meeting, which has been highly awaited, should give at least indications of further QE, if it doesn’t outright announce one. In any case EUR/USD has been pretty much in a range since last Thursday, giving the sensation the market is on hold to see what comes out of the ECB press conference tomorrow. Either way I expect a big reaction, no QE or weak message will send EUR/USD back up sharply, announcement of new QE Euro will be heading for more lows. Looks like a good time to buy a straddle on EUR/USD!!
We could see some big moves in the markets today if the ECB (QE) plan comes in well above or below what’s already priced into the euro. It is widely reported that the ECB will buy 50-billion euros in government bonds and that may last between 12 and 20 months. If it last 20 months that would be 1 trillion euros or at the bottom end 600bn euros.