#6232

fxguy
Participant

Hi Peacock,

I agree, its a classic equity curve of a martingale system, however with the ability for profits to run. The very short timeframes in the results are a problem. It is very easy to curve-fit results on a backtest to suit the data for a particular time period. I can generate million dollar returns on my robot if is optimise all the settings for a particular period of time. Outside this time period it will crash with these settings.

I would be looking for at least a few years of back tested results, plus at least 6 – 12 months of live performance to be confident a system is worth considering. Even then, as my robot shows, you can still get major drawdowns with most martingale systems. With mine, a major drawdown occurs about once a year on average. You need a few years results to realise this happens.

Also, very good if the live performance is the same as the backtesting. This indicates a more robust system.

I hope this helps.

FxGuy